Re-Evaluating My Theros Specs

Now that the metagame has evolved a little I figure it’s as good a time as any to take a look back at how things have been going with my picks and give a little update on what I’ve been specking on lately.

 

 

RECENT BUYS

I managed to buy 18x copies of Master of Waves @ $6 before they spiked, and managed to move all but 8 when they hit their peak of $25 a few weeks ago. In retrospect I should have bought more, but I’m still happy with the huge profits it’s netted and have a couple more that I can still out at their stabilized price of around $15 which is still almost triple.

Got in on Underworld Connections @ $1 each and bought 12x of them. They’re up to a solid $3 now. Again, should have bought more as I saw them as 4x in the insanely popular mono-B builds but I was late getting in on them so had to struggle to find ANY at a price I was happy with. Hey, $12 is still $12! That’s like, 2x $5 footlongs! lol

I also tried picking up an uncommon at $0.25… Fanatics of Mogis. When he started to show up in mono-R decks I managed to snag 25 of these for $0.25 each. I’m outing them @ $4 per playset so have been rewarded handsomely. Dump uncommons soon tho, as the more Theros opened, the more of them there will be!

I’ve invested in 40x Legions Initiative because I found them @ only $2.50 each and SCG had them for $5 with ebay auctions closing around $16 (now $4 on SCG… ouch… hoping I can still win on these! Break out darn you… BREAK OUT! Lol). My thinking was that with Boros and mono-R being real decks that people may adopt them into their boards / main as a way to combat Esper, and they also “combo” with a Mogis Fanatic and/or Purphoros in play. Hasn’t panned out yet, BUT a Boros deck DID just win the recent SCG Open (no, it has none main / board) so I’m holding onto hope that I didn’t just burn $100.

Here’s that Boros list for reference:

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=60384

Daxos of Meletis… oh Daxos, how I need you to succeed! I’m up to around 50 of the little Azorious legend that could. Let’s hope he does some heavy lifting soon as right now I seem to be the only one playing him. Like, THE only ONE. If I were to ask who’s tried him out in a crowded room full of magic players my answer would be the sound of crickets chirping haha.

LOOKING BACK TO MOVE FORWARD

I wanted to see how I was doing so far on my buys, so I’m going to compare my old article and my buy in / predictions to todays price on SCG since that’s the price guide I’d been using initially to reference.

Card: Boon Satyr

Bought in at: $0.99
Predicted: $3-5
Currently: $4

Obviously this was one of my best calls considering it went up to $7 for a while and I moved out all my extra copies at that price. Since it’s a rare I didn’t want to hold it for too long as the more pack of Theros that get opened the less desirable rares become because of the quantity opened. The card still sees play in a ton of decks so I think my prediction of $3 is probably the floor for this guy since he’s proven himself worthy.

Card: Hammer of Purphoros

Bought in at: $1.50
Predicted: $3-5
Currently: $1.50

The card is seeing a lot of play as predicted, but isn’t a 4x and the supply is starting to outweigh the demand. I already moved a bunch of these at $3, and while I don’t see them as going to bulk, I’m glad I ditched mine while they were more than I paid for them. No regrets on this one, as it will continue to see play (at least in sideboards) as long as control continues to dominate.

Card: Spear of Heliod

Bought in at: $1.50
Predicted: $3-5
Currently: $2

Another rare being outpaced by the amount opened. Surprising that it’s worth more than the Hammer when hammer is putting up more results, but this effect is probably more desirable. SCG is still priced higher than what I paid and I’m having no trouble moving them so although my prediction was off (again) it was still a fine buy. If mono-W or more Boros continue to rise in popularity the Spear will rise as well.

Card: Daxos of Meletis

Bought in at: $2.25 (then again @ 1.50)
Predicted: $4-6
Currently: $1

Noooooooo Daxos, why??? I thought we could be friends and dominate standard together while sipping punch and playing croquet. Instead you’ve become my first “real” loss so far. I’ve got hope D-Man, so don’t worry, I’m not about to abandon you. You can stay in my little shoebox of specs for a good, long while. At least you’ll always be great in commander if nothing else! L

Card: Colossus of Akros

Bought in at: $0.50
Predicted: $2-3… in a year or 2.
Currently: $0.50

No surprise here. The card has no standard appeal and was purchased for commander purposes. In retrospect I should not have made cash purchases on them (now I’m down $4 oh noes!) since everyone just wants to dump them as throw ins. Oh well.

Card: Heliod, God of the Sun

Bought in at: $9
Predicted: $15+
Currently: $8

I’m a little surprised here, but just don’t think the time has been right for him… YET. I’m totally willing to continue to sit on mine for a while and wait for them to pay out. Worst case scenario it becomes casual trade fodder but again, I’m still hopeful as he’s the only god to NOT have performed in a competitive capacity.

Card: Akroan Horse

Bought in at: $0.50
Predicted: $0? LOL
Currently: $0.50

I haven’t lost all my money on these yet??

… Oh wait, I’ll never be able to move them at almost ANY price.
*WAO-WAOOOOOO*

Card: Arbor Colossus

Bought in at: $0.75
Predicted: $0.25-1
Currently: $1

I had a good feeling about this guy and although he’s narrow because of his GGG CC, he’s seeing play! Who would have imagined that a big dumb undercosted monster could have a place in standard? I guess I did! I’m still thinking he has room to grow, especially since most decks that run B have 4x Desecration Demons main and this guy is more than happy to eat them and become 9/9 J.

Card: Ember Swallower

Bought in at: $0.50
Predicted: $0.25-1
Currently: $0.50

For a guy that’s actually seeing play in a bunch of decks he sure hasn’t picked up in price. The fact he’s both a promo as well as in an intro deck is obviously quite detrimental to his value. He’s still very tradeable and liquid albeit his low dollar value.

Card: Hundred Handed One

Bought in at: $0.50
Predicted: $0.25-1
Currently: $0.50

SOMEWHERE IN THE BETWEEN…

So I’ve had a few really good hits (Master of Waves / Boon Satyr / Underworld Connections) and a few losers (Heliod / Daxos / Anything that cost me $0.50), but overall I’m still ahead because of my big gains. As I’ve been saying for a while now the window is closing on Theros RARES as they are starting to be opened en mass and Magic Online redemption will cause a further influx of cards into the market.

Until next time spec LONG and spec HARD. (Sexual connotations implied :P)

Cheers,

Carl Szalich