Theros Speculation: Good, Bad, & Ugly Decisions...

Hello everyone, welcome back!

It’s been a long time since I’ve written, but finally feel as though there are a few things worth discussing now that Theros pre-releases are behind us and the set is due out next week.

PICKS: Hits and Misses

Well let’s talk speculating for a bit since it’s something that I enjoy almost as much as playing. Ah yes, my heart sometimes longs for the good old days when FNM was all that I yearned for, but now the thrill of playing mini-stock market with spoilers is my new love. Unfortunately, I only get to do this 4 times a year and I’ve been slacking lately, but sometimes is still better than never I guess.

A general tip about my speculating technique: I typically look for the near “penny stocks” of the set that I think have room to grow, so if a card is already $5+ I’m less likely to buy in. Sure they go up (and down) like everything else, but if I “hit” on a cheaper rare, I’ve typically bought in a much higher quantity, and invested much less capital to begin with. I try to invest in cards that I feel are at least “sure things” for the dollar or three I’m putting in so that even if they don’t necessarily increase in value, they don’t really have any room to fall any further.

I’ve organized the list into 3 sections: “Confident” / “Unsure” / “Why did I buy these”. I’ll give you my rationale as to why I think / thought they were good buys so that you can see my train of thought. I’ve also listed the quantity and price that I bought in at as well as my prediction to where the price will go and what Star City Games (SCG) is presently selling them for.

So with that said, here is my present portfolio of cheap Theros stuff for your evaluation:

“Magic costs a lot of money. We're gonna have to earn it.”

CONFIDENT!



Well after a meal, there's nothing like a quiet speculation.

12x Boon Satyr @ 0.99

When I first read this guy I did a double take. He trades with Loxodon Smiters and their ilk for the same CC but is mono color, has flash, AND can be a combat trick? Sign me up. I see him as being a major roleplayer in the new standard.
Prediction: $3-$5 / SCG Price: $3 (Winning)

12x Hammer of Purphoros @ 1.50

There will be a deck called “Stop… Hammertime!” that will run this as a 3-4 of. The haste is nice, but being able to recover from board sweep with an army of 3/3’s for the low low price of a crummy land that you don’t need anymore? Priceless.
Prediction: $3-5 / SCG Price: $3 (Winning)

8x Spear of Heliod @ 1.49
A glorious anthem that has built in removal? Strong. Aggressive decks will love this as it boosts their team and protects your poor little planeswalker body from fatties. I can certainly see almost every commander deck loving it as well since starting at higher life = can take more hits = more activations possible.
Prediction: $3-5 / SCG Price: $3 (Winning)

12x Daxos of Meletis @ 2.25

This guy really impressed me at the pre-release, and a few friends have been calling it the “kill it immediately or die to it card” of the set. It basically reads as “unblockable, life gain, card draw” and is reasonably costed. Could it be the new Geist?? The fact that it’s a rare will keep its price down, but I can see it as a 3-4x in U/W control AND U/W aggro… basically anything that’s U/W/X as well. If we can get a better manabase playing this T2 off an elf would be ridiculous!
Prediction: $4-6 / SCG Price: $4 (Winning)

UNSURE…



If we cut down my percentage... cigar?Liable to interfere with my predictions.

8x Colossus of Akros @ 0.49

Strictly commander material, but fits into any deck. Hard to go wrong with a 10/10 indestructible blocker for 8 that becomes a frackin’ 20/20 trampler for an additional 10.
Prediction: $2-3… in a year or two. / SCG Price: $0.49 (Stable)

2x Heliod, God of the Sun @ 8.93

A lot of people are saying this guy’s the worst god in the block… yet he’s the only one that can singlehandedly (as opposed to hundred handedly) win a game without any outside assistance. Sure, you can scry in U, draw cards in B, deal damage in R, and pump in G, but NONE of those will actually produce a win on their own, they all require cards to be played or drawn in order to “get there”. When Heliod comes down you get infinite blockers and sources of damage. No counterspell to play on opponents EoT? Make a dude instead. Win. He costs more $ than I normally like to spend but I feel he’s undervalued for what he does. Notable that he’s also gone up a few days this past week, has casual appeal, and is the 2^nd lowest priced of the gods ATM.
Prediction: $15+ / SCG Price: $12 OOS (Winning)

WHY DID I BUY THESE?

 

The way I figure... there's really not too much future with a sawed-off Minotaur like you.

8x Akroan Horse @ 0.49

Seemed like it could be a good finisher in a control deck or something? IDK. At $0.5 it wasn’t a big risk, does provide a body every turn (with quasi-haste!) and can threaten to overwhelm your opponent if they don’t deal with it. Meh, I can prob trade them to someone with similar thoughts in a worst case scenario, but infinite tokens can’t be THAT bad… can they? (Did I mention only $0.5 each?)
Predicton: $0.25-$1 / SCG Price: $0.49 (Stable)

8x Arbor Colossus @ 0.75

I was thinking that if mono-green devotion became a thing that this big guy could do something. I’m not writing it off yet, as a 6/6 for 5 that next turn destroys a flyer and becomes 9/9 is still pretty good. I wish I’d been able to get him at 0.5 but spoilers were just starting to come out and I could combine shipping so I got greedy. Anyways, it will be good for commander because of its large buttox and ability to deal with flyers. If there is more green based devotion that gets printed, it could get even better. Right now not sure if it’s playable…
Prediction: $0.25-$1 / SCG Price: $0.75 (Stable)

8x Ember Swallower @ 0.49

Didn’t know this guy would be the red promo card for pre-release before I bought him. Again, I think it has potential as if you make it to 7 lands vs control you’ll probably win. A 4/5 for 4 isn’t bad either way, so again there is still hope for it.
Prediction: $0.25-$1 / SCG Price: $0.49 (Stable)

12x Hundred-Handed One @ 0.51

First: How good would this guy be in bed? Ladies look out! That’s 100x the pleassuurreeee!! :P
3/5 vigilance for 4 isn’t terrible, and can block the plethora of 4/X creatures they’ve released without fear. His monstrous cost is somewhat reasonable and gives you a nice fat blocker that can realistically hold the fort while you do… stuff I guess?
Prediction: $0.25-$1 / SCG Price: $0.99 (Winning)

… So far so good! Looks like I’m at least stable (4/10) on all my picks with most of them in the winning factory (6/10)! Let’s see how they hold up once they become standard legal and have some results to back them up. Hmmm I’m thinking I should get a few more Heliod as he seems to already be up 33% and is OOS on SCG. That’s why this kind of data is so important!

(*FOLLOW-UP: Just went in on 4x more Heliod @ $9 each. I’d move him to the “CONFIDENT” section now, but am leaving him in his original position from when this was written*)
 

“You see, in this world there's two kinds of creatures, my friend:

Those with monstrous, and those who dig.

You dig.”

A Note About Monstrous

Monstrous creatures in general just seem like value when they are already (kinda) playable on their own, and have the opportunity to get better if not dealt with. Of those that I’ve selected (Arbor Colossus, Ember Swallower, Hundred Handed One) none of them are awful in a vacuum. They are all reasonably costed creatures with a decent upside if you’ve got nothing better to do with your mana. If they relied on being good solely based on being monstrous, I would not have picked any up at all. You can’t rely on getting monstrous, and you still want every card to have a board presence of their own when you play them without having to sink more mana into them to be effective.

Hey Carl! You Know What You Are?

Just A Dirty Son-Of-A *Wa-Wa-Waaaaaaaa*

And there you have it. A few of my picks, shared with you, good reader. Nothing is ever certain, and it will be interesting for me (us?) to revisit this page in a month to see if my predictions have still held true. I always like to come back to these articles as they are like an irreversible timestamp that shows how I did with my set speculations. When I look at the articles I used to write for Quiet Speculation I’ve done very well (with the exception of Hellion Crucible… damn that card!) and hope to continue to do so.

Do YOU have any tips / picks that you’d like to point out / share? POST and let’s discuss!

 

Cheers,

Carl Szalich