Trade or No Trade?

I think it’s time to do a little exercise with our evaluation skills. No one likes to be ripped off in a trade, and learning HOW to price different cards is essential to protecting the value of your collection and increasing it. Magic is a game, yes, but it’s also incredibly expensive! If you can avoid paying out real physical dollars for a card and trade for it instead, you’ve just basically “sold” your card and “bought” the one that you traded for without actually “spending” any money!

So we all know why trading is beneficial. It:

·         Gets you the cards that you need quickly

·         Prevents you from SPENDING money

·         Allows you to get rid of cards you’re not using

·         Gives you something to do between rounds

·         Provides opportunities to meet new people

·         May expose you to cards you didn’t know existed

·         Etc, etc, etc…

I think I’m going to try and make this type of article a regular feature, as I will be giving examples of trades, then letting YOU decide if it is a “Trade or No Trade”! This will help with your evaluation skills, give you a little bit more info on card prices, and show you some good and bad deals. We’ll look at a few trades I’d made recently then discuss them!

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<< TRADE 1 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Hero of Bladehold 2x Hero of Oxid Ridge 2x Mirran Crusader	1x Jace, Memory Adept 1x Garruk, Primal Hunter 1x Geist of Saint Traft 1x Isolated Chapel

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 1 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Hero of Bladehold ($12x3 = $36) 2x Hero of Oxid Ridge ($8x2 = $16) 2x Mirran Crusader ($5x2 = $10) $62	1x Jace, Memory Adept  ($18) 1x Garruk, Primal Hunter ($30) 1x Geist of Saint Traft ($15) 1x Isolated Chapel ($5)
Total = $62	Total = $68

PILES = FAIR.

Yes, pile 1 is “ahead” by $8, but it still looks like a fair trade as long as both people are getting cards they need. Pile 2 could theoretically take out the Isolated Chapel to make the $$ value almost totally even, but I can see giving a little bit more for the Heroes since they are all pretty hot right now. One interesting thing about this trade is that normally Pile 1 should be the one giving a little bit more since it’s “trading up” into more valuable cards, but I guess the possible increase in the value of Heroes made it the other way around.

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<< TRADE 2 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Watery Grave	3x Sulfur Falls 3x Hinterland Harbor 2x Isolated Chapel 2x Woodland Cemetery

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 2 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Watery Grave ($16x2 = $32)	3x Sulfur Falls ($5x3 = $15) 3x Hinterland Harbor ($5x3 = $15) 2x Isolated Chapel ($5x2 = $10) 2x Woodland Cemetery ($5x2 = $10)
Total = $32	Total = $50

PILE 2 = WIN!

I made this deal with a fellow value trader and it looks like we mispriced the Watery graves! Remember 2 months ago when they were worth almost $30? Yea, those days are over brotha! This is one of the reasons why it’s important to stay current with pricing as it waxes and wanes based on the format. I have no doubts that the Watery Graves WILL GO BACK UP to $25 come next Modern season, but right now, they aren’t played, and as such, don’t hold the value they once did. In pile 2 however, you have standard cards that will be used for the next 2 years without question. The only reason I did this deal was because I had an immediate need for the Innistrad lands and no need for the Watery Graves. In this deal when we look to the future we can also assume that the Innistrad lands are going to crash, whereas (provided they are not reprinted) the Watery Graves will remain steady or increase. So when we put a futures spin on things, the Watery Graves did better over the long run IMHO. Lots to consider with these types of inter-format trades!

Let’s review this one:

·         Present value vs. Expected Value (Grave value now vs. Modern Season value)

·         Modern Cards vs. Standard Cards (Cards in Print vs. OOP)

·         Current need vs. Future need (Needed now vs. Needed later / Not at all)

·         Past prices vs. Price Changes (Price Today vs. Old Prices)

·         Present Season vs. Next Season (Standard vs. Modern)

Something I can see happening for this trade is that my partner starts off down today, but wins in the long run. Let’s take another look at it THIS way instead:

<< TRADE 2 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
Value TODAY = $32 (2x $16) MODERN Season = $50 (2x $25)	Value TODAY = $50 (10x $5) MODERN SEASON = $25 (10x $2.5)
Total = $32 -> $50	Total = $50 -> $25

Following the trends of standard, within a few months we know that there will be sooooo much Innistrad out there that supply will be > demand and all the prices will drop. Meanwhile, when Modern season starts (and they’ve announced that it WILL be a PT format) the demand will increase for the “shock lands” and Watery Grave will be back to where we’d originally priced it at $25.

So is this REALLY that bad a deal for Pile 2?

Today? YES. Tomorrow? NO.

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<< TRADE 3 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Jace, Memory Adept 1x FOIL Delver of Secrets	2x Knight of the Reliquary 1x Cryptic Command (Promo)

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 3 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Jace, MA ($18x2 = $36) 1x FOIL DoS ($5)	2x KotR ($8x2 = $16) 1x CCommand (Promo) ($10)
Total = $41	Total = $26

PILE 1 = WIN!

Another deal w / my value trading buddy! He just LOVES to trade his standard for legacy / modern staples, and I just KNOW he flips them for good profit, but still. Pile 1 made out like a bandit on this one. We’d set a value of $12 on the Knights, which turned out to be a little high. The Knights vs. Dragons duel deck really did a number on his worth :S! If he WOULD have been worth the $12, that would have put us @ Pile 1 = $41 and Pile 2 = $34, a much closer trade and one that I’d have probably made if I was getting rid of non-playable standard stuff for legacy staples.

On a side note, I’d been speculating on the Delver of Secrets for Legacy at the time, and that turned out to be a hit! It had been valued as a throw in so didn’t affect our trade, but I wanted to list it since my “hunch” paid off (it’s now worth $5-6!) and it was included in the deal, really putting Pile 1 ahead!

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So those are some of the ACTUAL trades that I’ve done, my reasoning behind them, and some dollar values to show how easy it is to make or lose value on any trade. If you’re not feeling sure, feel free to ask someone for a second opinion, or don’t do the trade at all! Anyone who won’t “let” you get a second opinion on a trade is almost assuredly trying to get value out of you.

Trading is win / lose most of the time for me. I’ll give up a little value to GET something that I really want bad, but I’ll gain some value on an uptrade, or when I have something really hot that a lot of people are asking for. You don’t necessarily have to “win” every time, but you shouldn’t be letting people rip you off either.

I hope this article helps you in your future deals whether it’s evaluating card values, trying to figure out futures, speculating, or trading for that last card for your deck. J

Cheers,

Carl Szalich

Another Contest & The Worst Deck Ever!

“If you build it, they will come.”
… Sorry Kevin Costner, this last build was no “deck of dreams”.

My deck is worse than this card!

Sometimes you have to run with an idea to see if it’s truly as bad as you’d imagined it capable of being. For the past few weeks I’d been putting off building a standard deck. Not because I had no cards or ideas, but more so because the idea I had was terrible. Yet I lay awake, restless and hoping that I could get it to work.

Despite there not being ANY deck placing in the top 1000 that is using the ideas I had.
Despite the fact that I had to trade away Legacy staples for bad 5cc Jace.
Despite Dobbs laughter and head shaking whenever I told him about my “Awesome new Deck”.

I built it, and the only thing that came were taunts and humiliation :S.

Here it is. The first build of a self-mill / giant fatties deck. Please someone tell me it still has potential because I want to cling onto the hope that it will be great!! Lol

NOTE: This first build was NOT optimal. I was trying out different card combinations just to see if they were any good for testing purposes. I learned a lot about the deck in these first 50 games or so and will present an updated list after.

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4x Mindshrieker
4x Boneyard Wurm
4x Splinterfright
3x Laboratory Maniac
1x Moltentail Masticore
2x Mirror-Mad Phantasm
2x Kessig Cagebreakers
= 20 Creatures

4x Dream Twist
4x Think Twice
4x Forbidden Alchemy
2x Bonehoard
2x Jace, Memory Adept
= 16 Spells

+ 24 Land

Hold back the bile! I know this looks really, really bad… and it is.

The first thing that you may notice is the inclusion of Boneyard Wurm and Splinterfright. Theoretically, in a self mill type of deck, they should be great fits, becoming huge on T3 and beyond. Too bad there were only 20 creatures in the deck, eh? I would dream twist and mill only 1 creature or something equally improbable, or if I was lucky, hit 2 of them with the flashback. With only 1/3 of the deck being creatures, I guess it makes sense. Bad deckbuilding = bad results.

The flashback cards were all pretty good! I was never unhappy milling them away, and had plenty of opportunity to use them from the graveyard. The only thing was that they would stifle my board development. I would have to choose between dropping a Splinterfright or flashbacking a Think Twice. Since most of the time I didn’t even have a creature in my grave I would end up flashbacking the Think Twice and end up really far behind on threats.

So what worked out in the deck?

·         When the deck worked, it worked. A T1 Dream Twist dropping a creature or 2 into the grave followed by a T2 Boneyard Wurm into T3 flashback of Twist was nice.

·         The flashback cards were almost always available to be used.

·         Mindshrieker was consistent and did a LOT of damage on its own! It was also one of the only ways I had to get more creatures into the graveyard.

·         Kessig Cagebreakers were always GG when they weren’t answered.

·         Laboratory Maniac is a valid alternate win condition!

What didn’t work out in the deck?

·         Not enough creatures. The “get creatures into the GY” plan was a failure.

·         Mirror-Mad Phantasm was awful. When I had 7 mana up I’d rather be flashing back a Forbidden Alchemy or something. The toughness of “1” is what really killed it for me… MMP was never good, not even when he did what he was supposed to and milled a ton of cards into my GY.

·         The Moltentail Masticore was a nice “nonbo” and should be removed.

·         24 lands is waaayyyy too many, as they are about all that I milled and got stuck with. If I can reduce the CC significantly, I should be able to go w / 22-23.

·         The Bonehoard were cute little additions to go along with Inkmoth nexus but I never pulled off the “combo”, and the Bonehoard would have been better if they were creatures when they went into my grave.

So what should I change?

·         -2 Mirror-Mad Phantasm

·         -1 Moltentail Masticore

·         -1 Land

·         -2 Bonehoard

·         -1 Think Twice

·         -1 Forbidden Alchemy

·         +2 Kessig Cagebreakers

·         +1 Laboratory Maniac

·         +4 Skinshifter

·         +1 Jace, Memory Adept

These modifications would solve a lot of my problems.

It would give me more creatures that can both come out early, as well as fill my graveyard. I added the last Maniac and the other 2x Cagebreakers. The Cagebreakers will probably now serve as my #1 finisher in the deck. Jace was always fantastic, but I’m hesitant to add that 7^th 5cc spell to the mix since I’m taking away a land.

I guess this time when I test, I’ll even use sleeves! :O

What do you think? Does it at least have a chance?? Haha

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And now, a CONTEST!

Wow guys! 1000 hits! Thank you so much for visiting my blog!!

What better a time than now to start a new contest and give out a prize to all of my loyal readers!!

This contest will involve participation just as the last one did. Every reply that you post will earn you a ballot, and if you sign up to follow this blog, you'll earn another. Here is the twist: For every other person YOU get to follow this blog YOU will earn 3 ballots, and they will get the ballot for joining the site! You will also automatically get a ballot for being a “member”, regardless of your posts as a “thank you” for following ;).

So again, please try and keep your comments relevant to the post, but feel free to offer your input involving anything from site layout, to potential topics, to just your opinions on the article! Anything goes, really!

Last time I gave out Hero of Bladehold (which I told you all would be going up in price) which is now a $15 card. This time I’ll give out something with a little MODERN potential that hasn’t yet hit the big time… a Maelstrom Pulse! We’ve seen these get up to $15 before, and if there is a deck that uses it in Modern it will certainly go back up to or near its old value. It’s also AMAZING in EDH / Commander, so no matter the format, it’s a winner!

We’ll start the contest today (Oct 25 / 2011) and it will end on November 04 / 2011… just in time for the first FNM of the month!


Cheers and looking forward to your comments / suggestions!

Carl Szalich

Is Wolf Run Green the New Valakut?

Last week we talked a little bit about the shape of new standard here: Post Innistrad Standard Decks. We didn’t use the most competitive data, as we were just exploring possibilities.

I’d now like to introduce you to a site that I just found: http://mtgpulse.com/. This website is very close to what the old deckcheck.de used to be, in that it lists individual events and the top 8 decklists from them. I recommend you bookmark it immediately!

We’re going to take a look at the decks that have now seen competitive play and have made it into the T8 of both Grand Prix Brisbane as well as a few of the States / Provincials. Let’s see how many of each archetype are being played / winning and if there is a deck out there that is heads above the rest!

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GP BRISBANE (  Deserves its own section)

1^st = U/B Control

2^nd = Township Tokens

3-6^th = Wolf Run Green

7^th = U/B Control

8^th = Tezzeret

When we examined decklists last week I thought we’d be seeing a lot of Wolf Run decks and it looks like that has proven to be true. 4 of the top 8 decks were Wolf Run Green… something we’ve seen before with Valakut and later, Cawblade. Does this hold true for the results from states as well? Let’s find out!

In this list I have compiled the results from the first 6 lists for states that I found so as to not cherry pick for stats.

Legend:

Archetype = What kind of deck was played.

1^st = How many first place finishes the deck had.

Top 8 = How many times the deck showed up in the Top 8 EXCLUDING 1^st places.

Total = The number of T8 Finishes TOTAL (1^st + T8)

ARCHETYPE	1ST	TOP 8	TOTAL
Wolf Run Green	3	13	16
U/W Aggro	1	6	7
Red Deck Wins		6	6
Solar Flare		6	6
Tempered Steel	1	3	4
U/B Control		2	2
Township Tokens		2	2
Tezzeret		2	2
U/W Control	1	1	2
Mono Black Infect		1	1

10 different decks that made the T8 in those tournaments with the highest number of placing gong to Wolf Run Green with 40.0% of the total T8 showings. The next closest was U/W Aggro with 17.5%. That means that 55% of the top 8 placings were composed of those 2 decks, which doesn’t seem that diverse. Overall there were only 10 different archetypes that filled a possible 40 places.

Now here are the results of the first 6 lists for Provincials to see what’s happening here in Canada and if the metagame is any different:

ARCHETYPE	1ST	TOP 8	TOTAL
Solar Flare	1	11	12
Wolf Run Green	1	6	7
Red Deck Wins	2	3	5
RUG Control	2	2	4
U/W Aggro		3	3
Tempered Steel		3	3
Township Tokens		2	2
U/B Control		2	2
Shape Anew		1	1
Esper Control		1	1
Mono Black Control		1	1
Grixis Burning Vengeance		1	1
Mono Black Infect		1	1
Tezzeret		1	1
U/W Control		1	1
Junk		1	1
RUG Pod		1	1
Puresteel Paladin		1	1

In Canada it looks like the most popular deck was Solar Flare with 30%. Wolf Run Green was next with 17.5% and Red Deck Wins followed with 12.5%. There were 18 different decks that placed, which is a lot more diverse that how things looked on the American side. Is it because our Canadian meta is not as developed, or have we just been brewing more? I personally feel that where there are LESS decks making appearances that it means that we are in a more developed meta, which to me means that Canada is behind the curve as we have not optimized the best decks yet to crush all opposition.

It’s also interesting to note the lack of Solar Flare builds in USA vs. the number that showed up here in Canada. Wolf Run Green still seems to be “universally” popular, and have the most decks overall that have shown up in the Top 8’s.

Now let’s look at all of the winning decks to see if there are any trends:

ARCHETYPE	1ST
Wolf Run Green	4
RUG Control	2
Red Deck Wins	2
U/W Aggro	1
U/W Control	1
Tempered Steel	1
U/B Control	1
Solar Flare	1

While these stats are all well and good, let’s see if we can use them to see what the actual % finishing in top 8 vs. actually WINNING the events will be! This is important because it stakes the volume of decks vs. the actual wins for the deck itself.

ARCHETYPE	1ST	Total in T8	First %
RUG Control	2	4	50%
U/W Control	1	3	33%
Red Deck Wins	2	11	18%
U/B Control	1	6	17%
Wolf Run Green	4	27	15%
Tempered Steel	1	7	14%
U/W Aggro	1	10	10%
Solar Flare	1	18	6%

I really find this interesting. Some of the decks that were LEAST represented in the top 8 actually had the HIGHEST % of 1^st places! Could it be because people weren’t prepared for these underdog decks? So while the boogeyman Wolf Run Green decks took the MOST 1^st places, they were also the most represented so theoretically they SHOULD have the highest wins due to VOLUME, if nothing else.

I wish there was somewhere I could look that would show the TOTAL number of decks of each archetype that were present at the events so that we could compare that as well. If there were 1,000 Wolf Run Green decks and only 100 Red Decks, that would also affect this type of calculation on a much larger scale.

I hope this helps you better understand the metagame and what appear to be the top decks ATM!

Cheers,

Carl Szalich