Return of the Jundi! (And Trade or NO Trade)

Hello all! I’ve been busy brewing up a few lists as you;ve probably noticed, as now that there are a lot of deck lists and results out using Innistrad we should be able to see where the state of the game is going and prepare for it.

We’ve already looked at:

1)      Control -> "Ponder"ing the Aggro Solution

2)      Aggro -> The Last... I Knew You Were The Last!

The 3^rd archetype is of course MIDRANGE, which (as the name implies) falls somewhere between Aggro and Control. Some people even call this “aggro-control” since it’s a hybrid of both. Last season a perfect example of this was the old Jund deck which used powerful spells and creatures to generate card advantage vs control, and had better creatures than aggro. Is there a deck we can build today that can grind us CA and deal with the fast threats presented in Tokens / Aggro-Geist?

Here’s a proposal!

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MIDRANGE JUND (R/B/G)

4x Birds of Paradise

3x Skinshifter

3x Mayor of Avabruck

4x Daybreak Ranger

2x Solemn Simulacrum

2x Olivia Voldaron

2x Bloodgift Demon

1x Inferno Titan

1x Wurmcoil Engine

1x Grave Titan

23

3x Doomblade

3x Incinerate

3x Rampant Growth

2x Garruk Relentless

2x Garruk, Primal Hunter

13

2x Kessig Wolf Run

2x Inkmoth Nexus

4x Copperline Gorge

4x Blackcleave Cliffs

3x Swamp

3x Mountain

6x Forest

24

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Look at this curve!

CC1 = 4

CC2 = 15 (<- UGLY!!!)

CC3 = 4

CC4 = 6

CC5 = 4

CC6 = 3

AGAINST AGGRO?

Aggro has a hard time with Skinshifter and Doomblade / Incinerate keep it in check until we’re able to roll out our “bigger guys” who will trump all of theirs (except that accursed Hero of Bladeholme… damn she’s annoying! Save a doom blade for her! Haha). Daybreak Ranger is insane and will act as removal every turn until killed. If you can untap w / Olivia Voldaron in play, you’re probably going to win as well since she’ll either kill all their guys OR just get so big that she’ll trump everything else on the field, titans included. We round out the package with Inferno / Grave Titan and a Wurmcoil engine, all of which eat little bears all day long.

AGAINST CONTROL?

The Mayor is an excellent tool vs Control. If you can slip one under a counterspell and they don’t deal with it immediately, it can win the game all on its own. A T2 Skinshifter swinging for 4 a turn is also pretty good because of the trample and the fact that it can kill a Spellskite. Solemn is CA, Bloodgift is CA, the Garruks are CA and CA is really good vs control. Our creatures are so quality that any one of them can end the game on their own, so control has to make 1-for-1 trades which it really hates to do. The Kessig Wolf Runs makes ANY threat lethal, so it’s a nice bonus!

There you go! 3 decks within a week, one for each play style.

What’s YOUR favorite style? Aggro, Control, or Midrange?

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Here’s a quick Trade or NO Trade for you as well! This trade went down about 2 weeks ago… let’s look at this one from what prices were back then VS. what they are today to see if we can learn anything about how values are shifting, and if a trade from then is still be a good deal if we did it THIS week instead!

<< TRADE 1 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Stromkirk Noble 1x Angelic Destiny	1x Scaab Ruinator 1x Batterskull 2x Blackcleave Cliffs

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

What about 3 weeks ago… were they even THEN?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 1 – TODAYS VALUES >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Stromkirk Noble ($5x3 = $15) 1x Angelic Destiny ($16)	1x Scaab Ruinator ($4) 1x Batterskull ($12) 2x Blackcleave Cliffs ($4x2 = $8)
Total = $31	Total = $24

Oh no! It looks like by TODAYS values pile 1 is waaayyy ahead! Someone got a great deal on an Angelic Destiny is what REALLY happened here, as it was on the rise when traded and Skaab was falling. Batterskull has been stagnant at $12 for a while now, and Blackcleave Cliffs don’t have a home yet, so I think they’re undervalued right now. All in all, today, this would be a VERY bad trade. Let’s see how things looked 3 weeks ago when the trade actually happened!

<< TRADE 1 – NOV 6TH VALUES >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Stromkirk Noble ($6.5x3 = $19.5) 1x Angelic Destiny ($11)	1x Scaab Ruinator ($6) 1x Batterskull ($12) 2x Blackcleave Cliffs ($4x2 = $8)
Total = $30.50	Total = $26

Still a bad deal L, just not AS bad. I’m pile 1 and was dealing with a super-aggressive value trader. I’m normally pretty calm / rational when I’m trading so don’t know why I did this one. I knew Angelic Destiny was on the rise and that Skaab was on the fall, but still did the trade because of pressure, and the fact that he wanted us both to use SCG values, so it should have been on a level playing field. HOWEVER, Starcity had NOT updated their prices on either Destiny OR Skaab, and while I had a bad feeling about the trade, and SCGs values seemed off, I did it anyways. I still think Skaab and Blackcleave are poised to go up, but that shouldn’t have changed the fact that AT THE TIME, they were low, so I should have traded for them as such.

I’m going to take a few things about this trade away with me, as I think I learned something!

a)      If you don’t feel comfortable with a trade, don’t do it!

b)      SCG is NOT the be-all-and-end-all (That’s what eBay completed listings is for).

c)      Don’t let yourself get “hussled” or intimidated.

d)      If you KNOW something is gaining, ask for more than its current value.

e)      Trade for cards at CURRENT value, not possible future values.

Learn from my mistakes!!! Hahaha…

Cheers,

Carl Szalich

Trade or No Trade?

I think it’s time to do a little exercise with our evaluation skills. No one likes to be ripped off in a trade, and learning HOW to price different cards is essential to protecting the value of your collection and increasing it. Magic is a game, yes, but it’s also incredibly expensive! If you can avoid paying out real physical dollars for a card and trade for it instead, you’ve just basically “sold” your card and “bought” the one that you traded for without actually “spending” any money!

So we all know why trading is beneficial. It:

·         Gets you the cards that you need quickly

·         Prevents you from SPENDING money

·         Allows you to get rid of cards you’re not using

·         Gives you something to do between rounds

·         Provides opportunities to meet new people

·         May expose you to cards you didn’t know existed

·         Etc, etc, etc…

I think I’m going to try and make this type of article a regular feature, as I will be giving examples of trades, then letting YOU decide if it is a “Trade or No Trade”! This will help with your evaluation skills, give you a little bit more info on card prices, and show you some good and bad deals. We’ll look at a few trades I’d made recently then discuss them!

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<< TRADE 1 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Hero of Bladehold 2x Hero of Oxid Ridge 2x Mirran Crusader	1x Jace, Memory Adept 1x Garruk, Primal Hunter 1x Geist of Saint Traft 1x Isolated Chapel

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 1 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
3x Hero of Bladehold ($12x3 = $36) 2x Hero of Oxid Ridge ($8x2 = $16) 2x Mirran Crusader ($5x2 = $10) $62	1x Jace, Memory Adept  ($18) 1x Garruk, Primal Hunter ($30) 1x Geist of Saint Traft ($15) 1x Isolated Chapel ($5)
Total = $62	Total = $68

PILES = FAIR.

Yes, pile 1 is “ahead” by $8, but it still looks like a fair trade as long as both people are getting cards they need. Pile 2 could theoretically take out the Isolated Chapel to make the $$ value almost totally even, but I can see giving a little bit more for the Heroes since they are all pretty hot right now. One interesting thing about this trade is that normally Pile 1 should be the one giving a little bit more since it’s “trading up” into more valuable cards, but I guess the possible increase in the value of Heroes made it the other way around.

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<< TRADE 2 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Watery Grave	3x Sulfur Falls 3x Hinterland Harbor 2x Isolated Chapel 2x Woodland Cemetery

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 2 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Watery Grave ($16x2 = $32)	3x Sulfur Falls ($5x3 = $15) 3x Hinterland Harbor ($5x3 = $15) 2x Isolated Chapel ($5x2 = $10) 2x Woodland Cemetery ($5x2 = $10)
Total = $32	Total = $50

PILE 2 = WIN!

I made this deal with a fellow value trader and it looks like we mispriced the Watery graves! Remember 2 months ago when they were worth almost $30? Yea, those days are over brotha! This is one of the reasons why it’s important to stay current with pricing as it waxes and wanes based on the format. I have no doubts that the Watery Graves WILL GO BACK UP to $25 come next Modern season, but right now, they aren’t played, and as such, don’t hold the value they once did. In pile 2 however, you have standard cards that will be used for the next 2 years without question. The only reason I did this deal was because I had an immediate need for the Innistrad lands and no need for the Watery Graves. In this deal when we look to the future we can also assume that the Innistrad lands are going to crash, whereas (provided they are not reprinted) the Watery Graves will remain steady or increase. So when we put a futures spin on things, the Watery Graves did better over the long run IMHO. Lots to consider with these types of inter-format trades!

Let’s review this one:

·         Present value vs. Expected Value (Grave value now vs. Modern Season value)

·         Modern Cards vs. Standard Cards (Cards in Print vs. OOP)

·         Current need vs. Future need (Needed now vs. Needed later / Not at all)

·         Past prices vs. Price Changes (Price Today vs. Old Prices)

·         Present Season vs. Next Season (Standard vs. Modern)

Something I can see happening for this trade is that my partner starts off down today, but wins in the long run. Let’s take another look at it THIS way instead:

<< TRADE 2 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
Value TODAY = $32 (2x $16) MODERN Season = $50 (2x $25)	Value TODAY = $50 (10x $5) MODERN SEASON = $25 (10x $2.5)
Total = $32 -> $50	Total = $50 -> $25

Following the trends of standard, within a few months we know that there will be sooooo much Innistrad out there that supply will be > demand and all the prices will drop. Meanwhile, when Modern season starts (and they’ve announced that it WILL be a PT format) the demand will increase for the “shock lands” and Watery Grave will be back to where we’d originally priced it at $25.

So is this REALLY that bad a deal for Pile 2?

Today? YES. Tomorrow? NO.

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<< TRADE 3 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Jace, Memory Adept 1x FOIL Delver of Secrets	2x Knight of the Reliquary 1x Cryptic Command (Promo)

So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?

Think about it before you scroll down…

<< TRADE 3 >>
PILE 1	PILE 2
2x Jace, MA ($18x2 = $36) 1x FOIL DoS ($5)	2x KotR ($8x2 = $16) 1x CCommand (Promo) ($10)
Total = $41	Total = $26

PILE 1 = WIN!

Another deal w / my value trading buddy! He just LOVES to trade his standard for legacy / modern staples, and I just KNOW he flips them for good profit, but still. Pile 1 made out like a bandit on this one. We’d set a value of $12 on the Knights, which turned out to be a little high. The Knights vs. Dragons duel deck really did a number on his worth :S! If he WOULD have been worth the $12, that would have put us @ Pile 1 = $41 and Pile 2 = $34, a much closer trade and one that I’d have probably made if I was getting rid of non-playable standard stuff for legacy staples.

On a side note, I’d been speculating on the Delver of Secrets for Legacy at the time, and that turned out to be a hit! It had been valued as a throw in so didn’t affect our trade, but I wanted to list it since my “hunch” paid off (it’s now worth $5-6!) and it was included in the deal, really putting Pile 1 ahead!

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So those are some of the ACTUAL trades that I’ve done, my reasoning behind them, and some dollar values to show how easy it is to make or lose value on any trade. If you’re not feeling sure, feel free to ask someone for a second opinion, or don’t do the trade at all! Anyone who won’t “let” you get a second opinion on a trade is almost assuredly trying to get value out of you.

Trading is win / lose most of the time for me. I’ll give up a little value to GET something that I really want bad, but I’ll gain some value on an uptrade, or when I have something really hot that a lot of people are asking for. You don’t necessarily have to “win” every time, but you shouldn’t be letting people rip you off either.

I hope this article helps you in your future deals whether it’s evaluating card values, trying to figure out futures, speculating, or trading for that last card for your deck. J

Cheers,

Carl Szalich