I think it’s time to do a little exercise with our evaluation skills. No one likes to be ripped off in a trade, and learning HOW to price different cards is essential to protecting the value of your collection and increasing it. Magic is a game, yes, but it’s also incredibly expensive! If you can avoid paying out real physical dollars for a card and trade for it instead, you’ve just basically “sold” your card and “bought” the one that you traded for without actually “spending” any money!
So we all know why trading is beneficial. It:
· Gets you the cards that you need quickly
· Prevents you from SPENDING money
· Allows you to get rid of cards you’re not using
· Gives you something to do between rounds
· Provides opportunities to meet new people
· May expose you to cards you didn’t know existed
· Etc, etc, etc…
I think I’m going to try and make this type of article a regular feature, as I will be giving examples of trades, then letting YOU decide if it is a “Trade or No Trade”! This will help with your evaluation skills, give you a little bit more info on card prices, and show you some good and bad deals. We’ll look at a few trades I’d made recently then discuss them!
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<< TRADE 1 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
3x Hero of Bladehold 2x Hero of Oxid Ridge 2x Mirran Crusader | 1x Jace, Memory Adept 1x Garruk, Primal Hunter 1x Geist of Saint Traft 1x Isolated Chapel |
So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?
Think about it before you scroll down…
<< TRADE 1 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
3x Hero of Bladehold ($12x3 = $36) 2x Hero of Oxid Ridge ($8x2 = $16) 2x Mirran Crusader ($5x2 = $10) $62 | 1x Jace, Memory Adept ($18) 1x Garruk, Primal Hunter ($30) 1x Geist of Saint Traft ($15) 1x Isolated Chapel ($5) |
Total = $62 | Total = $68 |
PILES = FAIR.
Yes, pile 1 is “ahead” by $8, but it still looks like a fair trade as long as both people are getting cards they need. Pile 2 could theoretically take out the Isolated Chapel to make the $$ value almost totally even, but I can see giving a little bit more for the Heroes since they are all pretty hot right now. One interesting thing about this trade is that normally Pile 1 should be the one giving a little bit more since it’s “trading up” into more valuable cards, but I guess the possible increase in the value of Heroes made it the other way around.
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<< TRADE 2 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
2x Watery Grave | 3x Sulfur Falls 3x Hinterland Harbor 2x Isolated Chapel 2x Woodland Cemetery |
So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?
Think about it before you scroll down…
<< TRADE 2 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
2x Watery Grave ($16x2 = $32) | 3x Sulfur Falls ($5x3 = $15) 3x Hinterland Harbor ($5x3 = $15) 2x Isolated Chapel ($5x2 = $10) 2x Woodland Cemetery ($5x2 = $10) |
Total = $32 | Total = $50 |
PILE 2 = WIN!
I made this deal with a fellow value trader and it looks like we mispriced the Watery graves! Remember 2 months ago when they were worth almost $30? Yea, those days are over brotha! This is one of the reasons why it’s important to stay current with pricing as it waxes and wanes based on the format. I have no doubts that the Watery Graves WILL GO BACK UP to $25 come next Modern season, but right now, they aren’t played, and as such, don’t hold the value they once did. In pile 2 however, you have standard cards that will be used for the next 2 years without question. The only reason I did this deal was because I had an immediate need for the Innistrad lands and no need for the Watery Graves. In this deal when we look to the future we can also assume that the Innistrad lands are going to crash, whereas (provided they are not reprinted) the Watery Graves will remain steady or increase. So when we put a futures spin on things, the Watery Graves did better over the long run IMHO. Lots to consider with these types of inter-format trades!
Let’s review this one:
· Present value vs. Expected Value (Grave value now vs. Modern Season value)
· Modern Cards vs. Standard Cards (Cards in Print vs. OOP)
· Current need vs. Future need (Needed now vs. Needed later / Not at all)
· Past prices vs. Price Changes (Price Today vs. Old Prices)
· Present Season vs. Next Season (Standard vs. Modern)
Something I can see happening for this trade is that my partner starts off down today, but wins in the long run. Let’s take another look at it THIS way instead:
<< TRADE 2 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
Value TODAY = $32 (2x $16) MODERN Season = $50 (2x $25) | Value TODAY = $50 (10x $5) MODERN SEASON = $25 (10x $2.5) |
Total = $32 -> $50 | Total = $50 -> $25 |
Following the trends of standard, within a few months we know that there will be sooooo much Innistrad out there that supply will be > demand and all the prices will drop. Meanwhile, when Modern season starts (and they’ve announced that it WILL be a PT format) the demand will increase for the “shock lands” and Watery Grave will be back to where we’d originally priced it at $25.
So is this REALLY that bad a deal for Pile 2?
Today? YES. Tomorrow? NO.
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<< TRADE 3 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
2x Jace, Memory Adept 1x FOIL Delver of Secrets | 2x Knight of the Reliquary 1x Cryptic Command (Promo) |
So what do you think? Pile 1 or 2 or are they even?
Think about it before you scroll down…
<< TRADE 3 >> | |
PILE 1 | PILE 2 |
2x Jace, MA ($18x2 = $36) 1x FOIL DoS ($5) | 2x KotR ($8x2 = $16) 1x CCommand (Promo) ($10) |
Total = $41 | Total = $26 |
PILE 1 = WIN!
Another deal w / my value trading buddy! He just LOVES to trade his standard for legacy / modern staples, and I just KNOW he flips them for good profit, but still. Pile 1 made out like a bandit on this one. We’d set a value of $12 on the Knights, which turned out to be a little high. The Knights vs. Dragons duel deck really did a number on his worth :S! If he WOULD have been worth the $12, that would have put us @ Pile 1 = $41 and Pile 2 = $34, a much closer trade and one that I’d have probably made if I was getting rid of non-playable standard stuff for legacy staples.
On a side note, I’d been speculating on the Delver of Secrets for Legacy at the time, and that turned out to be a hit! It had been valued as a throw in so didn’t affect our trade, but I wanted to list it since my “hunch” paid off (it’s now worth $5-6!) and it was included in the deal, really putting Pile 1 ahead!
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So those are some of the ACTUAL trades that I’ve done, my reasoning behind them, and some dollar values to show how easy it is to make or lose value on any trade. If you’re not feeling sure, feel free to ask someone for a second opinion, or don’t do the trade at all! Anyone who won’t “let” you get a second opinion on a trade is almost assuredly trying to get value out of you.
Trading is win / lose most of the time for me. I’ll give up a little value to GET something that I really want bad, but I’ll gain some value on an uptrade, or when I have something really hot that a lot of people are asking for. You don’t necessarily have to “win” every time, but you shouldn’t be letting people rip you off either.
I hope this article helps you in your future deals whether it’s evaluating card values, trying to figure out futures, speculating, or trading for that last card for your deck. J
Cheers,
Carl Szalich
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