Last weekend marked PT Philadelphia and the first ever Modern tournament. Blue control was nowhere to be seen, aggro was struggling and combo seemed to own the top tables. Was no one prepared for the Storm, Swath, Hive Mind, Grapeshot and Splinter Twin decks or did they just get lucky?
Let's take a quick look at the top 8 decklists:
(The official link can be found here: PT Philly Top 8 Decklists)
Top 8 Meta Breakdown:
2x Splinter Twin (Dedicated Combo)
2x Pyromancers Ascension (1 w/ Twin Sideboard)
2x Aggro (1x Affinity / 1x Zoo)
1x Infect (Mono Blue)
1x 12 Post (Through the Breach)
So we’re basically looking at 4x Combo Decks, 3x Aggro Decks and a “Big Mana” deck.
What went wrong for Control? Could it be that banning Mental Misstep and Big Jace cost them their spots? Typically Control keeps Combo in check, Aggro beats Control, and Combo beats Aggro. This Paper / Rock / Scissors scenario was non-existent. Following these results, I’m sure WotC is going to have to revamp their banned / restricted lists to allow for control to at least PLAY the game again.
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Now for my favorite part… taking a look at the cards that are worth picking up! Evaluating the rares that show up in the top decks is a great way to see where demand is going to shift. Yea, we all love to build our own decks, but who doesn’t like to have an inside edge on what seems to be doing well?
Here are some numbers from some of the most popular Modern cards:
LANDS
Real estate has always been my favorite cards to speculate on, as any good deck needs a tight mana base that enables it to cast spells. Without the right color mana, you won’t be casting your spells, obv.
21 Scalding Tarn
19 Misty Rainforest
13 Steam Vents
19 Misty Rainforest
13 Steam Vents
4 Glimmerpost
4 Vesuva
4 Vesuva
4 Arid Mesa
4 Cloudpost
4 Darksteel Citadel
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
3 Stomping Ground
2 Marsh Flats
2 Breeding Pool
2 Dryad Arbor
2 Tolaria West
2 Tectonic Edge
4 Cloudpost
4 Darksteel Citadel
3 Blinkmoth Nexus
3 Stomping Ground
2 Marsh Flats
2 Breeding Pool
2 Dryad Arbor
2 Tolaria West
2 Tectonic Edge
I guess those of you who have started selling out on Fetch Lands must be kicking yourselves, eh? With 40x Blue Fetch Lands in the top 8 decks you KNOW that they are not just going to cool down when Zendikar rotates! The other Fetch lands also had a respectable showing, so keep your playsets, as you never know when you may need a 1x or 2x of the “less popular ones” to power your Lotus Cobra or get that 1x Swamp you’re running. It’s also interesting to note that the new Inkmoth Nexus > Blinkmoth Nexus, so that’s another standard card to be on the lookout for.
It looks like prices should start to cool on Ravnica Shock lands, as they were used mostly just to be searched out with fetch lands! A meager 22 of them showed up in the top lists, with 13 of those being Steam Vents. Even “counter-cat zoo”, a deck typically hungry for the duals only ran 7x, and most were 1 ofs. When control comes back, we can probably expect more of them as zoo should start placing higher.
A sad, sad story about Grove of the Burnwillows. Looks like they were worth the hype and their $20 price tag, as 12 of them showed up in 3 separate decks. I already owned 2 of them, and found another 2 for sale at a great deal ($8) at LA Mood! I was sooooo happy that I finally had my playset! I slipped them into my cargo shorts (as I was just biking around at the time and had no binder / bag) and headed home ecstatic.
… My girlfriend did laundry the next day :*(.
Do you think they’re still sleeve playable?? Lol!!
PICK-UPS:
Grove of the Burnwillows (Deserves its rep)
Blue Fetch Lands (Because blue is the best :S)
Inkmoth Nexus (Ousted Blinkmoth)
STAY-STEADY:
Vesuva (Control WILL be back, and 12 post is good vs. it)
Non-Blue Fetch Lands (Zoo, etc...)
Non-Blue Fetch Lands (Zoo, etc...)
TRADE-AWAYS:
Ravnica Shock Lands (Unless you need them yourself)
CREATURES
Considering 2x of the decks didn’t even have ANY in the main deck, let’s see what that left us with! I’m going to exclude listing a few of the really cheap commons / uncommons here so that the list is more coherent.
12 Deceiver Exarch
10 Spellskite
10 Spellskite
4 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Primeval Titan
4 Arcbound Ravager
3 Qasali Pridemage
3 Etched Champion
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Oracle of Mul Daya
1 Terastodon
1 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
1 Brooding Saurian
4 Primeval Titan
4 Arcbound Ravager
3 Qasali Pridemage
3 Etched Champion
1 Grim Lavamancer
1 Oracle of Mul Daya
1 Terastodon
1 Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre
1 Brooding Saurian
The top creature was Deceiver Exarch?? I guess that’s no surprise since Twin won the tourney. Paired with Kiki-Jiki as additional Twin effects 5-6 this deck is even more solid than its standard counterpart. Spellskites were aplenty from both exarch decks AND non-exarch to fight them, so I can see this little guy maintaining his $7 price tag because now he’s proven in multiple formats. There were NO Vendillion Cliques main, but obviously they were VERY strong in the sideboard. I don’t think they’ll hold at $25-30, but they will be major players in Modern for forever, so I’d hold them instead of sell them until we see the new banned list. When control comes back, so will this guy! Also worth noting that Emrakul has snuck his way into EVERY format save commander (where he’s banned), so keep your playsets as he’s run as a 4-of or not at all it seems...
Most of the 1-ofs that you see in this list can be attributed as Green Sun Zenith targets. Gaddock is a nice little silver bullet, and Brooding Saurian seems like tech. Quasali Pridemage remains the king of the GSZ targets showing up in 2 separate decks.
PICK-UPS:
Spellskite (Multi-format staple)
Etched Champion (So inexpensive you may as well)
Knight of the Reliquary (Still cheap / multi format)
STAY-STEADY:
Noble Hierarch (Zoo staples)
Tarmogoyf (Still the best 2cc beater)
Kiki-Jiki (Would have been a pick-up but in FTV Legends)
Vendilion Clique (Will be good again!)
Vendilion Clique (Will be good again!)
TRADE-AWAYS:
Dark Confidant (He didn’t show up anywhere!)
SPELLS / ARTIFACTS
Since this was a heavy combo finish, there are LOTS of spells / artifacts to evaluate. Once again, I’m going to cut down on the inexpensive commons for clarity sake. Worth noting is the abundance of Ponder and Preordain that showed up… it’s disgusting. Make sure you have your playsets of these “little commons that could”.
20 Ponder
20 Preordain
16 Remand
13 Blood Moon
12 Splinter Twin
13 Blood Moon
12 Splinter Twin
11 Punishing Fire
10 Firespout
8 Pyromancer Ascension
8 Green Sun's Zenith
6 Mindbreak Trap
6 Ancient Grudge
6 Dismember
5 Pact of Negation
10 Firespout
8 Pyromancer Ascension
8 Green Sun's Zenith
6 Mindbreak Trap
6 Ancient Grudge
6 Dismember
5 Pact of Negation
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Jace Beleren
2 Gideon Jura
2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
1 Slagstorm
1 Summoner's Pact
2 Jace Beleren
2 Gideon Jura
2 Elspeth, Knight-Errant
1 Slagstorm
1 Summoner's Pact
Yep, no surprises here really. Lots of combo enablers like Ponder / Preordain, a little bit of creature control with Firespouts / Punishing Fire / Dismember, and a slice of control with Remand / Pact of Negation & Disrupting Shoal (<- Shocking, I know!).
I’m guessing that 12-post may have just gotten so much hate that it didn’t put up numbers when I see things like 13 Blood Moon, and even Beast Within is a nice trump to it. There were only 6x Planeswalkers that showed up in the T8 lists evenly spread between Gideon, Small Jace and Elspeth so they didn’t have as big an impact as I would have assumed. Had big Jace been legal, I’m sure we’d have seen 32 copies in the T8, however.
PICK-UPS:
Blood Moon (They’re cheap and see play again)
Green Sun’s Zenith (For under $5, why not?)
Torpor Orb (Great SB card. Standard for another year as well!)
Pact of Negation (Free counterspell protects combos)
Mindbreak Trap (Great vs. Storm / combo. Cheap right now)
Trickbind (It’s like stifle, but modern!)
Through the Breach (If you find them for $1… now worth $10!)
STAY-STEADY:
Splinter Twin (Good in more than Standard after rotation)
Mox Opal (Multi-Format)
Pacts (See play in Legacy as well w / Hive Mind)
TRADE-AWAYS:
Tooth and Nail (Didn’t place, but good for Commander)
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That’s a lot of information to digest, I know. But when we look at where we are NOW, it will paint a path to where we go in the future.
We know that since combo ruled this PT, we can expect a lot of hate for it at the next Modern tournament. More people should be picking up swamps for disruption, and control will show up with counterspells to keep them off their combo / slow them down. This will of course allow aggro to creep up a little as the control decks should be keeping combo under control. That will put the paper / rock / scissors back into the game and balance things out.
As always, feedback / comments are appreciated!! This blog is still very new and I want to ensure that it’s giving you the information that you’re looking for / things that interest you :).
Cheers, and looking forward to hearing from you!
Carl Szalich
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