Thursday 1 September 2011

A "Modern" Day Horror Story!

I'd like to share a story with you about the sky, and how it fell when Modern was announced as a REAL format for PT Philadelphia.



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First of all, what IS modern?

To quickly re-hash recent news, modern is a non-rotating format that will be taking the place of the old extended. Modern will consist of all of the blocks / sets that use the new card frame style that started in Mirrodin. Some people feel it was designed to replace legacy, since the initial costs of that format were prohibitive for many new players, and wizards wanted a way to be able to reprint cards to get around their "reserved list" policy to keep the prices down to allow easier entry.

It will consist of cards from the following sets:
  • Eighth Edition
  • Ninth Edition
  • Tenth Edition
  • Magic 2010
  • Magic 2011
  • Mirrodin block
  • Kamigawa block
  • Ravnica block
  • Coldsnap
  • Time Spiral block
  • Lorwyn block
  • Shadowmoor block
  • Shards of Alara block
  • Zendikar block
  • Scars of Mirrodin block

It also has it's own banned list, which contains the following cards:
  • Ancestral Vision
  • Ancient Den
  • Bitterblossom
  • Chrome Mox
  • Dark Depths
  • Dread Return
  • Glimpse of Nature
  • Golgari Grave-Troll
  • Great Furnace
  • Hypergenesis
  • Jace, the Mind Sculptor
  • Mental Misstep
  • Seat of the Synod
  • Sensei's Divining Top
  • Skullclamp
  • Stoneforge Mystic
  • Sword of the Meek
  • Tree of Tales
  • Umezawa's Jitte
  • Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle
  • Vault of Whispers
Wow, that's quite the list! To me it looks like they just took the best cards out of every legacy deck and gave them the banhammer! I guess we'll see after PT Philly how this list worked out and if it needs to be revised.

(If you want more info on Modern, check out the official wizards announcement here: MTG Modern - Wizards Article)

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Now that you know a little bit about modern, and how it replaced extended, I'll share two stories with you. One of how I LOST a ton of money, and one of how I MADE it back.

Rewind to the end of extended season last year. I played Doran to a 5-3 record in a field full of Scapeshift and Dark Depths / Vampire Hexmage combo. Had I been less tired, I would have done better, but play mistakes cost me a few games, and ultimately matches.

So extended season ends, and I've got tons of Lorwyn block cards that are basically worthless now since they'll be rotating from extended into oblivion (oblivion consists of every non-PT format). All my old favorites like Mutavault, Tarmogoyf, Vendillion Clique, Bitterblossom etc were now nothing more than cards for Cubes and Commander decks. Yes, some of them had legacy application, but the more narrow a card becomes (read: the less formats it can be used in), typically the less it's value, as demand for it decreases. Basic economics.

I wanted to maximize the amount I would get for these cards before they were completely useless while they had SOME worth, so went on an eBay listing spree. I sold 2 playsets of Vendillion Cliques, a playset of Goyf, my Mutavaults, 3 playsets of Cryptic Commands... basically everything that is / was playable. I made some good money on the sales, and was VERY happy when I checked eBay completed listings a few weeks later and saw that I'd made out like a bandit, as the prices continued to bottom out, as predicted.

Then the unthinkable happened. MODERN was announced as a format.

The V-Cliques I'd sold for $12 were suddenly worth $30. The Cryptics I'd sold for $7 were $12 again. And so the trend continued skyward on these once fallen heroes, now back in their glory as the kings of the upcoming Modern format! I wasn't so disappointed that I didn't maximize my profits, because who could have known? What REALLY irked me was that now I had to BUY BACK all the cards I'd previously sold in order to compete! THAT was what really broke me, and my wallet.

//End of sad story.

It goes both ways, however. With the announcement of Modern also came the opportunity to speculate for myself! I started buying all of the "shock lands" I could find for less than $10. I was buying Dark Confidants @ $20, and Goyfs @ $55. I started picking up "filter lands" and Reflecting pools, Reveillarks and Rangers of EoS. If I saw a lonely Cryptic Command just kicking it in a random binder, I traded for it. I got in late on Grove of the Burnwillows, but early on Knight of the Reliquary. I still had no Mutavaults (except for a foil in my cube), but at least I didn't need to re-buy the Bitterblossoms since they were banned. My Thoughseize collection grew exponentially, as did my Maelstrom Pulses and Vesuvas. Things were back on track for Mr. Suitcase!







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So there we have it. A story of betrayal, and a story of redemption. A friend becomes an enemy, and an enemy becomes a friend.

There are a few expressions / phrases that sum up this experience: 
"When life gives you lemons, make lemonade." - Joan Collins
"Every cloud has a silver lining." - John Milton
"First you want to kill me, now you want to kiss me. Blow." - Ash


Until next time remember: You're bigger than you think! :)

Cheers,
Carl Szalich

3 comments:

  1. You are always in at the ground level wheeling and dealing for cards that are bound to increase in value. It comes as no surprise to me that the "losses" you took on the cards you sold pre-modern announcement (although, let's be honest.. you still made money on those deals :D) were more than made up by your intelligent speculation on good cards that are sure to find a home in modern decks. Real estate (i.e. nonbasic lands) are always bound to be a good investment in the long term as a good mana base is central to winning strategies that competitive players will pay top dollar for (as time has taught us) as well as being essential to building a fun and consistent Commander deck (also new to being a Wizards backed format). Keep the great posts coming Carl. I've enjoyed your blog thus far and I wish you continuing successes with your market speculation.
    Cheers buddy,

    Jeyo
    p.s. Love the blog title! :D

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hey Jeyo, thanks for the feedback! LOL you know me, always looking for the deals... I can't help it! :P

    And you're correct. While I didn't technically "lose" any money, I lost "virtual" dollars because I wasn't able to fully capitalize on the Modern market fluctuations. It enrages me that I missed out on such a golden opportunity because I'm normally all over things like this! haha.

    Suffice to say: Both Modern and Commander have been kind to me. <3

    ReplyDelete
  3. OUCH that really sucks....just think if you would of hoarded even longer the $$$ you could of made!!!!

    Although I'm sure you will find a way to make $$$ of these too!

    ReplyDelete