Innistrad Mythics - Evaluation / Primer

*** Not sure why, but blogger is giving me errors for this post... sorry! ***

You can quit drooling now; the full spoiler has finally been released! :)

With every set, I like to evaluate which cards are worth the hype, which are undervalued, and which are just plain crap. I look at this as a great way to get the jump on deck building as well, as it really gets you thinking about card interactions within the set and magic as a whole.

Today I'm going to take a look at the MYTHIC RARES coming out of Innistrad, and which ones I'd be on the lookout for at this weekends pre-release. I'll also set a rough price point based on completed eBay auctions as of NOW, as well as where I see prices in the future after the initial buzz has died down.

Let’s start!
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	A non-lifelink Baneslayer Angel with a conditional ability that is quite strong. I like the card, but unless you’re playing a W/x “human” deck, it won’t make the cut. This makes the card very narrow, so with the quantity that will be opened anyone looking to build said human deck should find these in abundance. It is an angel, however, so should retain SOME value due to those crazy angel collectors out there :P. The above method of evaluation is something that I’m going to come back to a lot, and it’s a skill that I STRONGLY suggest you start honing. There were a few things I said in the above paragraph that you should always look for: 1)      Is the ability conditional? If so, it wouldn’t be able to be used in EVERY deck, and therefore there will be less demand for it because it has a narrow use. In this case it is true because of the fact that to make the Angelic Overseer any good, you need a human in play. This is a problem because you not only need to play with humans, but you also have to have a human in play. Double conditional. After a Day of Judgment this guy is just a 5/3 flyer. When deck building you want to try and reduce the amount of cards that rely on other cards to be “good”, so even devoted human decks may choose NOT to run this guy because of the fact that it could be vanilla instead of always being amazing. 2)      Is the card narrow in its uses? How many decks are going to want to play this card? Is it Tarmogoyf level in power, where EVERY green deck is going to run 4x, or is it focused on only 1 deck type, like tempered steel would be. The more decks a card can be used in, the higher its demand will be as more people will need it. Higher demand = higher price. See? Isn’t economics fun?! In this case, the card is very narrow, as it will only see play in a human deck. 3)      Does the card have a UNIQUE ability? I didn’t actually mention that it didn’t have a unique ability, but it doesn’t. At best it is a flying / indestructible / hexproof… nothing we haven’t seen before on other cards. There won’t be any crazy combo decks abusing this guy. So it has 3 strikes against it. Conditional, narrow, and vanilla. Its prices are going to reflect this. EBay TODAY: $4-5 Predicted Future Price: $1-2
	I REALLY like this guy. He fits anywhere on the mana curve and can pump himself and / or your team. He’s legendary, so probably won’t be played as a 4x, but I can see him being used in decks that aren’t just “human” decks. This guy would be great in any kind of token or swarm deck, for example. His price will be slightly reduced because he was printed in FTV: Legends, but he’s still going to be in demand because he’s so versatile. EBay TODAY: $4-5 Predicted Future Price: $3-4
	If there is a self mill strategy, this card MAY make the cut. I really think he’s overcosted for what he does… by a LOT. If I’m going to be investing 5 mana in a measly 5/1 flyer, I at LEAST want to be able to use his ability right away. As it is, you actually need 7 mana to play this guy efficiently: The 5 to cast him with 2 more mana up to “protect” him if he’s targeted. I guess if you ARE able to stick one of these guys that he could be a pain for your opponent as he’s hard to get rid of, but he really doesn’t have much else going for him aside from his recursion. Again, if there is a mill strategy, this guy could possibly see play, but you’d really only want him as a 1-2x anyways since you’ll want to flip / discard as many cards from your library as possible with that strategy. Too many of this guy in your deck = hitting him sooner = not enough cards put into your graveyard. EBay TODAY: $2-3 Predicted Future Price: $1
	There is a lot of debate about this guy, and I’m not buying into the hype. People compare him to Vengevine, but this guy is far worse. I can cast Vengevine T4 all the time AND swing with him, and it’s easy to play 2x creatures in a turn to bring him back and have him swing immediately again. Ruinator has recursion, yes, but the conditional cost to both play him from hand AND graveyard is VERY high. He will see play as a 1x in Birthing Pod decks and 4x in self mill decks. Anyone who is thinking of living the dream and casting him on T3 is in for a surprise because without the perfect hand, it’s not going to happen. MAYBE with a T1 Dream Twist and T2 Flashback Dream twist you could do it… but then you’ve just wasted 2x turns just for your 5/6 flyer who will undoubtedly eat a Doomblade / Go For the Throat / Oblivion Ring etc… Then if you want to cast him again T4, you need the perfect setup once more. I’m not convinced he’s worth the $$$. EBay TODAY: $12-15 Predicted Future Price: $8-10
	“This. Is. My. BOOMSTICK!” Pay 8, get 13 2/2’S? It could have a home in a zombie control deck, but anything that costs 8 is typically not constructed worthy unless it will win the game as soon as it’s cast. In this case, you spend your 8 mana, your opponent gets a chance to react on their turn with a Slagstorm / DoJ or the like so it doesn’t “auto-win”. BUT it also has flashback, which makes the first board reset negligible at the mere cost of only 10 mana! Restrictive mana cost + narrow = not in demand. I could see this played in Commander however, so I won’t totally write it off yet… EBay TODAY: $3-4 Predicted Future Price: $1
	A 3cc planeswalker with relevant abilities… gotta love her! She’s removal for creatures, discard for control. She may even see legacy play, as a T1 dark ritual into Liliana vs. a combo deck is very good, AND she can make a NO RUG player sacrifice their Progenitus which is an added bonus. She also plays well with reanimator type cards, as she’ll allow you to discard that pesky Jin-Gitaxias to bring back next turn (or even THAT turn!). Her mana commitment is only 2B, so even decks that aren’t hardcore black can splash her (unlike poor Sorin Markov). She’ll see play in casual as well, as cubes will want her and commander players love to have opponents sacrifice things that are too big to deal with. Her versatility is really what makes her shine. If you’re playing vs. control and manage to stick Liliana, for the first few turns you can make them discard until they play their fatty, then make them sacrifice it. VS aggro it will eat a creature and draw an attack away from you. You may even get lucky and be able to chain sacrifice effects against them and basically get a few free “timewalks” as they play a creature, then have to sac it, then play another, and sac it as well… all at no further mana cost to you! Strong. EBay TODAY: $28-32 Predicted Future Price: $20-25
	I like him in a sideboard or something? While powerful, these 6/6 for 6 type creatures all end up meeting with a fatal flaw… they have to compete with the Titans as the “finishers” of choice. This guy creates situational card advantage though, and he’s a really nice trick if you’re able to drop him! You swing with your team into unfavorable blocks, your opponent kills one of your team, you play the demon and ace their best guy. If they swing on their turn, you block a weakling and EoT snipe another of their best peeps. The “titan dilemma” is always what makes me question the inclusion of these creatures, and his price reflects this. As we’ve already discussed, cards like Grave Titan are ALWAYS good… you drop him, you get 2x 2/2’s. This guy could just be a 6/6 flyer for 6. Conditional, but powerful. EBay TODAY: $2-3 Predicted Future Price: $2 **UPDATE** Mike White is making a call on this guy as a sleeper, and mentioned it's amazing in Pod decks, which I hadn't considered. Odds are it will only be played as a 1-of IMHO, but it will still cause some demand! He also feels it will TRUMP the titan decks, which is always a possibility! EBay TODAY: $2-3 Predicted Future Price: $3-4
	I REALLY hate when WotC adds “filler mythics” to sets. No one wants to open this card unless you’re playing limited, in which case he’s a b-bomb. A 7cc creature with no immediate effects that dies to every piece of removal in the format is not good. I’m sorry if you opened one of these… maybe you could trade it for a decent uncommon to a dragon collector? Lol EBay TODAY: $1 Predicted Future Price: $0
	It’s like a Yawgmoth’s Will for instants / sorceries! I’ll bet that pre-banning this card would have OWNED the modern format, but now it’s just OK. Very situational, very mana intensive. You have to have 5 mana just to replay a ponder off of it. Late game you can do crazy things like flashback all your lightning bolts and shocks, but unless you’re running a storm combo or something, its uses are narrow. It has the potential to be broken, however, so keep your eyes on it, because this is a hard call. It really doesn’t feel very “mythic” to me, so I think red got hosed in that department between this and the dragon. EBay TODAY: $5-7 Predicted Future Price: $3 (but could EXPLODE)
	TIMMMYYYY!!! This card is for YOU. Limited bomb, unplayable in constructed. Just read up on the Balefire Dragon because they’re both bad for the same reasons. At least this guy has a mythic “feel” to it, which is something I guess… :S. EBay TODAY: $2-3 Predicted Future Price: $1
	He’s got a lot going for him, but it’s kinda the same old, same old just with a different picture and a really cool mechanic. He still makes creatures to protect himself, so he generates card advantage that way. He can still make an “overrun” effect, which is a great game ender. He’s got a new ability that green doesn’t normally have, and that’s built in removal! Aside from Unyaro Bee Sting I can’t think of another effect green has that does this. It’s nice that you can play him, burn a creature and have them deal up to 2 back and immediately flip him. The deathtouch wolves are nice, as they act as the ultimate defenders, which is an upgrade to the classic 3/3 beast tokens IMHO. Not as good vs control since you’re giving them a longer clock, but much better vs. aggro since all your wolves trade with all their non-first strike guys. His ability to search out any creature in your deck is probably underrated right now since I never hear anyone discussing it. You’ll be able to run a few silver bullets in your deck that he can tutor up when needed. Burn got you down? Search out an Obstinant Baloth! Need mana fix? Sylvain Ranger to the rescue! Being a tutor / token generator / overrun giver = high price tag and worth it. *NOTE: I still think Garruk, Wildspeaker was the best incarnation of the G-Man! :P* EBay TODAY: $20-25 Predicted Future Price: $20
Will not allow picture upload? TREE OF REDEMPTION	This is my call on one of the cards that’s going to go up in value once people realize how good it is. It’s the Spellskite of this set IMHO. At first I wasn’t that impressed, then I read it again. “Wait a sec… you don’t have to sacrifice the tree to use its ability??” AMAZING. Not only is it the ultimate wall with a hearty 13 toughness, but it gains you life FOREVER. How is a mono red deck supposed to win against this card? I somehow doubt they’ll be running that “destroy a land, deal 13 damage card” (Into the Maw of Hell). They get you in the red zone, you go back up to 13. They bolt you 4x times… you go back to 13 and apologize for them emptying their hand for nothing. I guess I could be wrong on this, but it seems to shut down every aggro deck that doesn’t run non-burn spot removal… My first pick to rise in value… let’s see if I’m right! :) EBay TODAY: $3-5 Predicted Future Price: $6-8 **UPDATE** Mike White informed me in the comments that the tree doesn't work as I'd originally believed. You actually SWITCH your life total with the tree, not just have your life total become the trees toughness. So while it's still good, it's not mind-boggling good... EBay TODAY: $3-5 Predicted Future Price: $4-5
Will not allow picture upload? GEIST OF SAINT TRAFT	Ummm… combo with sundial of the infinite anyone? C’mon, I CAN’T be the first one to think of that! Lol. A low CC hexproof creature with a massive upside when attacking. I don’t think he’s worth the $12+ right now, but I can see him as constructed playable. Being able to abuse the angels EtB (Enters the Battlefield) effect every turn has got to count for something, you just need to find the right way to do it (Warstorm Surge?). He’s also got potential as a great Commander as well! EBay TODAY: $12-15 Predicted Future Price: $6-8
Will not allow picture upload? GRIMGRIN, CORPSE-BORN	By far the coolest name in the set, just saying “Grimgrin” makes me think Zombieland! That’s about all the positive things I have to say about him, however. If at least he came into play untapped that would make him better, but to risk sacrificing a creature only to have him killed before getting a single attack in doesn’t seem like a good deal. If you get him online he’ll be amazing, but his conditional costs are prohibitive. You’re sacking a creature every attack as well, so it’s card parity, not advantage. You’re probably sacking worse guys than you’re killing which is nice, but I’m sure there will be situations when you don’t want to sacrifice your Frost Titan to untap him. Now if you’ve just played “Army of the Damned”, it’s a different story! Ooh ooh ooh… breeding pit or even goblin assault would work well in a deck with this guy, but then you’re playing bad cards in order to play another bad card. IDK, but seems good as a commander! EBay TODAY: $2-3 Predicted Future Price: $1-2
	Yea, I’d tap that! … … … As in swing for the red zone you pervs! :P What an amazing vampire. Competitively priced at only 2BR it will see play in B/R vampires 100%. Hell, I’d even run 4 to be sure that I draw one! She deals direct damage and pumps herself when she does. She takes control of a creature she damages. She’s like a lightning bolt and a mind control all wrapped in one. In the Vampire mirror, it’s going to come down to who draws their Olivia first. She’s so efficient and powerful, I’d run her even in a non-Vampire deck. It’s one of those rare instances when she doesn’t need to be part of the tribe to succeed! This card is singlehandedly going to force me to join team Edward over team Jacob. I can see her gaining momentum and her price rising accordingly. Another of my calls! EBay TODAY: $2-4 Predicted Future Price: $4-5
	Before you play this card, don’t forget to say: “Klaatu barada nikto” or it’s an auto loss, lol. Oh the Army of Darkness puns could go on forever with this set, and I love it! I can totally see some diabolic planeswalker waiting for you to put the 3rd counter on the Grimey (as his friends called him) then naturalizing it. Cards like this set you up for disaster. Its redeemable quality is that it’s discard AND reanimation all in one! Just add creatures, stir and serve! It would be fun to use in a more casual environment like Commander, but I don’t think it will see constructed play due to the high probability of you getting 4 for 1’d. EBay TODAY: $3 Predicted Future Price: $1

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Tomorrow I’m going to look at a few of the rares from Innistrad that I think have potential. I won’t be going through them all like I did with the mythics, but focusing on those that I feel have room to move up, or come crashing down hard.

TALKBACK!

What do you think about these evaluations… on target or way off?

Anything that you think will be hot that I missed?

What’s your favorite Mythic from Innistrad?

Did you find this article helpful to decide what to buy and what to trade away?

Cheers,

Carl Szalich